ANN ARBOR, Mich. – The No. 12 ranked Michigan Wolverines (20-5, 12-2 Big Ten) sit atop the Big Ten Conference by one game as they’re riding a six-game winning streak.
But nipping at their heels are the No. 14 ranked Michigan State Spartans (21-5, 12-3 Big Ten), who are riding a two-game winning streak after taking down the Purdue Boilermakers 75-66 Tuesday (Feb. 18) inside the Breslin Center.
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Prior to Tuesday’s game, MSU had a quick turnaround. They traveled to the State Farm Center in Champaign, Illinois, and defeated the Fighting Illini 79-65.
The Spartans overcame a 16-point deficit with their own 13-point run to set up an ultimately dominant second half, holding the Illini scoreless for the game’s final 8:29.
However, the Spartans must take the one-hour drive to “Area 50-1” in Ann Arbor, where extraterrestrials are known to roam inside the Crisler Center, where Michigan is 12-0 this season.
Area 50-1 -- Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf -- put the men in maize on their backs in Columbus, where they took down the Ohio State Buckeyes 86-83 inside the Value City Arena for their sixth consecutive victory.
The Wolverines improved to 9-4 in games decided by five for fewer points while advancing to 20-5 on the season.
Area 51 is a large property known as the Nevada Test and Training Range, where nuclear bombs are tested. The Wolverines' “Twin Towers” definitely exploded in Columbus, as they combined for 37 points in the victory.
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What is Michigan/MSU’s greatest advantage in Friday’s game?
Brandon: The Wolverines' biggest advantage in Friday’s game will not be Area 50-1, as the Spartans have plenty of bodies to throw at Goldin and Wolf. The biggest advantage will come from the “Maize Rage” and the rest of the rabid fans that will pack the Crisler Center.
Tom Izzo will need a bullhorn to complain about unfavorable calls to the referees.
You can expect decibel levels to reach depths of insanity as fans will blow the roof off the gym, which is something they’ve done all season, leading to the program’s first 12-0 home start in basketball history.
Isaiah: MSU’s greatest advantage in Friday’s game is their steady guard play. Tre Holloman and Jeremy Fears Jr. average a combined 10 assists per game while averaging less than two turnovers each.
Both are trustworthy ball handlers who can facilitate the offense and score when needed. In the past two games, Michigan State had only seven turnovers against Illinois and eight against Purdue.
Michigan’s guards, Tre Donaldson and Roddy Gayle Jr., average a combined 6.8 assists per game, while both average more than two turnovers per game. Michigan also uses 7-footer Danny Wolf as a ballhandler and scorer, but he averages over three turnovers per game.
The Wolverines are one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to handling the ball. They average 14.4 turnovers per game, ranking 336th out of 364th in Division I basketball programs. Michigan will have to find a way to limit turnovers. Otherwise, the Spartans, who are third in the nation in fast-break points, will punish them.
If Holloman and Fears can facilitate the offense and take care of the ball, the Spartans will have a great advantage over the turnover-riddled Wolverines.
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What worries you most about this game?
Brandon: We’ve seen the Wolverines play in 25 games this season, and one thing Michigan fans have learned is that they turn the ball over a ton, which bodes well for MSU. The Wolverines have cut their turnovers down in their recent games, including 12 against Ohio State and 11 against Purdue.
Although those numbers are too high for my liking, the Wolverines will win Friday’s game if they can keep their turnovers to 12 or fewer. In the Spartans' five losses this season, teams turned the ball 12 or fewer times, so 12 is the magic number for a Wolverines victory.
Isaiah: I’m most worried about the Spartans’ lack of three-point shooting. They are shooting 29% from 3-point range this season and rank 353rd out of 364 for Division I basketball programs in 3-point shooting. It’s not like the team doesn’t consist of capable shooters, but they are in a shooting slump collectively.
Jaden Akins is shooting 28.6% from range this season after shooting more than 36% from three-point range in all his past seasons at MSU. Frankie Fidler shot 36% from three-point range last year at Omaha but has struggled at MSU, shooting just 18% from three-point range.
Michigan can get hot from three-point range at any moment. The Spartans must make some threes to keep up with Michigan’s offense.
Who is the X-factor for your team in this game?
Isaiah: Jaxon Kohler is MSU’s X-factor in this game. He will face Wolf and Goldin, and he will need to be aggressive on both ends.
Kohler had 23 points, 10 rebounds, a block, and two steals against Illinois last Saturday. He showed that he could be a threat inside and out and that Michigan’s bigs must respect him.
Look for Kohler to be aggressive and try to draw fouls against Michigan’s bigs. The more energy Wolf and Goldin spend on defense, the less effective they’ll be on offense.
Defensively, Kohler will need to continue to play solid team defense along with the rest of State’s bigs. MSU is ranked third in the Big Ten in average points allowed, partly due to Kohler’s defense and rebounding.
Brandon: The X-factor for the Wolverines will be their guard play as a whole. Donaldson, Rubin Jones, L.J. Cason, Justin Pippen, and Gayle must be prepared for Izzo’s “blitz” defense, which was displayed in their last matchup against the Boilermakers.
Purdue point guard Braden Smith is considered to be the best guard in the Big Ten, and he was null-and-void inside the Breslin Center.
Every time Smith got the ball, the Spartans blitzed his pick-and-rolls, causing him to play faster than he expected. This led to a forced shot by his teammates, which caused the ball to ricochet off the rim, leading to rim runs for the Spartans, who had nine dunks in the matchup. This got the crowd hyped and ultimately overpowered the Boilermakers.
What is your prediction for Friday’s game?
Brandon: Friday’s matchup will be a knockdown, drag-out fight. A game of this magnitude hasn’t been felt since former head coach and Fab Five member Juwan Howard’s first season when expectations were through the roof, which was the 31st season in program history when they finished 23-5 overall and 14-3 in the Big Ten Conference.
Let’s be honest: Michigan fans weren’t expecting to be in this situation coming off of an 8-24 season while going 3-17 in the Big Ten during the 2023-2024 campaign.
But newly hired head coach Dusty May has turned this program around quick, fast, and in a hurry, and now they’re vying for the Big Ten crown.
With May calling the shots in a game with huge ramifications, I expect the men in maize to exploit the Spartans’ weakness: 3-point shooting, which currently ranks 16th in the Big Ten Conference. With the Twin Towers roaming the paint, I can see this game being a nail-biter that the Wolverines win and improve to 10-5 in games decided by five or fewer points.
Isaiah: I predict a low-scoring defensive matchup that will be close for most of the game, but Michigan State will pull out the W.
The crowd and atmosphere will be electric, causing the Spartans to start the game cold, but they’ll settle in.
The Spartans’ defense will keep them in the game and Michigan’s turnovers will be costly in crunch time. My prediction is 70-62 MSU.
Which team outside the state is the biggest threat to win the Big Ten?
Isaiah: I’m going to say the Wisconsin Badgers, as their remaining schedule includes home games against Oregon, Washington, and Penn State.
The Badgers will hit the road against Michigan State and Minnesota, which will be tough games, but they could sneak out a win against Minnesota.
Wisconsin could very well finish this season with a 15-5 record in conference play by winning four of their last five games. Purdue also has a very winnable remaining schedule, including home games against UCLA and Rutgers.
They’ll travel to Indiana and Illinois as well. However, the Boilermakers are faltering right now, coming off four straight losses.
Brandon: Isaiah and I can agree on one thing, and that is how dangerous the Badgers have become over the last couple of weeks.
Wisconsin (21-5, 11-4 Big Ten) was an afterthought for most of the season as it was clear that the Big Ten was coming down to Purdue, Michigan State, and the Wolverines.
As the Wolverines got hot and ran off six consecutive victories to stand atop the conference, the Boilermakers lost three straight, including a 94-84 home defeat to the Badgers.
From an offensive standpoint, the Badgers lead the Big Ten with 16 games of 10 or more made threes this season while scoring 90 or more points in three of their last 13 Big Ten games.
To put that in perspective, they’ve only scored 90 or more points in three of their previous 400 games, so it’s safe to say they are very dangerous for the Spartans and the Wolverines.
Predict your team’s final Big Ten record. Will that be good enough to win the league?
Isaiah: I predict The Spartans will finish the Big Ten season with a record of 15-5.
Michigan State will close out the season strongly, winning three of its last five games despite having the toughest remaining schedule.
The Spartans have ironed out the wrinkles and peaked at the right time this season.
Michigan and Wisconsin also have the potential to finish 15-5. I predict Michigan will beat Nebraska, Rutgers, and Illinois but lose to Michigan State twice and once to Maryland.
I also predict Wisconsin will win four of their last five games, making a three-way tie for the Big Ten title.
Brandon: Isaiah is tripping. He doesn’t even believe his own prediction. There’s no way Michigan is dropping two games to MSU, and also, the Spartans have one of the toughest remaining schedules, including hosting Wisconsin.
The Wolverines’ aspirations of winning the Big Ten championship fall on Friday’s home game. They do not want the championship to come down to winning the season’s final game inside the Breslin Center.
Head coach John Beilein, a two-time NCAA National Championship game runner-up, said it best when he believed a four-loss team would win the conference title outright and a five-loss team would share it.
I believe the men in maize will win Friday’s matchup and, with five games remaining, take a two-game lead in the conference.
After they get past the Spartans, they’ll travel to Nebraska to play the Cornhuskers.
Then they’ll be home to Rutgers, Illinois, and Maryland, which they should handle before resting their starters against the Spartans during the final game of the season, finishing 25-6 overall and 17-3 in the conference.
