The 16 ways Detroit Lions can make playoffs if they finish season 4-1

DETROIT – If the Detroit Lions win four of their final five games, will it be enough to get into the playoffs? We can’t know for sure, but the answer is likely yes.

Thanksgiving weekend couldn’t have gone any worse for the Lions. Not only did they lose to the Packers, effectively ending their division title hopes, but every other relevant playoff contender in the NFC won.

Current playoff standings

Here’s a look at the standings in the NFC heading into Week 14:

Division leaders:

1. NFC North: Chicago Bears (9-3)
2. NFC West: Los Angles Rams (9-3)
3. NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (8-4)
4. NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)

Wildcard standings:

1. Seattle Seahawks (9-3)
2. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)
3. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
4. Detroit Lions (7-5)
5. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)
6. Carolina Panthers (7-6)

The top three teams in the wildcard standings get into the postseason, so right now, the Lions are on the outside looking in.

Remaining Lions schedule

The Lions’ schedule isn’t going to get any easier. On Thursday Night Football this week, they host a Cowboys team that’s coming off back-to-back wins over the Eagles and Chiefs.

Then, Detroit heads out to Los Angeles for a road game against the first-place Rams.

Pittsburgh comes to Detroit for the final home game of the season. The Steelers are currently 6-6 and on the outside of the AFC playoffs, but they’re also tied with the Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North.

The Lions end the regular season with road games against the Vikings and Bears. The Vikings already beat the Lions at Ford Field this season, and the Bears are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

There are plenty of ways the Lions could finish the season with four wins in their last five games and still miss the playoffs. But there’s a really good chance an 11-6 record would get them in as a wildcard.

Let’s dive into how they could finish ahead of each fellow playoff contender individually.

San Francisco 49ers

The team directly ahead of the Lions is the 49ers, who have their bye in Week 14. Although the Lions are just one loss behind the 49ers, it’s going to be hard to catch up because of tiebreakers.

San Francisco hosts Tennessee in Week 15, which is as close to an automatic win as you can find in the NFL (the Titans are 1-11).

That means the 49ers would have to lose to the Colts, the Bears, and the Seahawks to fall behind the Lions in the standings. Or they could lose to the Bears and Seahawks (both games are at home) and finish with the same conference record as the Lions if the Lions go 4-1 with a loss to the Steelers.

That scenario seems very unlikely, but if it did play out, the next tiebreaker would go to the Lions, who would have a better record against common opponents.

Recap:

Here’s how the Lions can pass the 49ers (assuming the 49ers beat the Titans):

• Lions go 4-1 with loss to Steelers AND 49ers lose to Bears and Seahawks.
• Lions go 4-1 AND 49ers lose to Colts, Bears, and Seahawks.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are a half-game behind the Lions right now, but they’re still in the playoff picture.

The Lions could devastate the Cowboys’ chances with a win on Thursday. If the Lions win the head-to-head on Thursday and finish the season with 11 wins, there’s no way the Cowboys can pass them.

But even if the Lions lose to the Cowboys on Thursday and then win their final four games, they would most likely finish ahead of the Cowboys. The Cowboys would have to win out against the Vikings, Chargers, Commanders, and Giants.

That’s certainly possible, but it’s hard to win eight games in a row in the NFL, and that’s what the Cowboys would have to do to get to 11-5-1.

Recap:

Here’s how the Lions can finish ahead of the Cowboys:

• Lions beat Cowboys and only lose once more this season.
• Lions lose to Cowboys AND Lions win their last four games AND Cowboys lose at least once.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina pulled off a big upset this week, beating the Los Angeles Rams to enter the wildcard mix.

The Panthers are on bye this weekend and then finish the year against the Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers again.

If the Lions go 4-1, the Panthers would have to win out to tie them at 11-6. Carolina would have the tiebreaker due to a better conference record.

So if the Lions go 4-1, they would need the Panthers to lose one more game.

Recap:

Here’s how the Lions can finish ahead of the Panthers:

• Lions go 4-1 AND Panthers lose one of their final four games.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers currently sit a game and a half ahead of the Lions and own the head-to-head tiebreaker. But luckily for the Lions, Green Bay’s tie basically negates any chance that a tiebreaker comes into play.

If the Lions finish the season 11-6, they would need the Packers to fall to 10-6-1. That means the Packers need to lose three of their final five games.

That might sound unlikely, but look at this schedule: vs. Chicago (9-3), at Denver (10-2), at Chicago, vs. Baltimore (6-6), and at Minnesota (4-8).

Those Packers-Bears games could end up being huge for the Lions because no matter what, someone has to lose (assuming they don’t tie). If either team can sweep those two head-to-head matchups, it would open the door for the Lions to slide into the other team’s spot.

Recap:

Here’s how the Lions can pass the Packers:

• Lions go 4-1 AND Packers lose three of final five games.

Chicago Bears

Chicago is currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but we’re going to do them next since their fate is so closely intertwined with the Packers’.

The Bears are a full two games ahead of the Lions, but the Lions won the first head-to-head meeting.

That means there’s still a chance for the Lions to secure the primary tiebreaker over the Bears during a Week 18 rematch in Chicago.

If the Lions go 4-1 with another win over the Bears, they would only need the Bears to lose two of their next four games: at Green Bay (8-3-1), vs. Cleveland (3-9), vs. Green Bay, and at San Francisco (9-4).

But if the Lions go 4-1 and that loss is in Chicago, they would need the Bears to lose three of the other four games -- including both against Green Bay.

If the Bears lost to Green Bay twice and Cleveland, the Lions would win the “common opponents” tiebreaker over the Bears.

If the Bears lost to Green Bay twice and San Francisco, the “common opponents” tiebreaker and conference record tiebreaker would both be even between the Lions and Bears.

In that scenario, the tiebreaker would move to “strength of victory,” which the Lions would almost certainly win.

Recap:

Here’s how the Lions can pass the Bears:

• Lions go 4-1 with win in Chicago AND Bears lose two of four games before that matchup.
• Lions go 4-1 with loss in Chicago AND Bears lose both games to Packers AND Bears lose to Browns and/or 49ers.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have quietly been one of the steadiest teams in the NFL, winning six of their last seven games to get to 9-3.

But the road ahead isn’t easy. They get a road game against the 4-8 Falcons this week before a gauntlet of playoff contenders to end the season: the Colts, Rams, Panthers, and 49ers.

If the Lions finish 4-1, they need the Seahawks to finish 2-3 in order for both teams to be 11-6.

The first tiebreaker between non-division teams who haven’t played head-to-head is conference record. If the Lions’ loss is to the Steelers, their conference record would be 8-4. If their loss is in any of the other four games, it would be 7-5.

Seattle is currently 5-3 in the NFC. If one of their three losses is to the Colts, their NFC record would be 7-5. If all three came against NFC teams, that record would drop to 6-6.

Let’s say the Lions and Seahawks are both 7-5 in the NFC. If the Lions beat the Rams and Vikings, they’re guaranteed to win the “common opponents” tiebreaker over the Seahawks.

So if the Rams or Vikings are the Lions’ one loss, the Lions would need the Seahawks to lose to the Rams, as well, to win the “common opponents” tiebreaker. Otherwise, the tiebreaker would move to strength of victory.

The Lions currently have a sizable lead over the Seahawks in strength of victory.

Recap:

Here’s how the Lions can pass the Seahawks (this is the messiest one):

• Lions finish 4-1 with loss to Steelers, Cowboys, or Bears AND Seahawks lose three of final five games.
• Lions finish 4-1 with loss to Rams or Vikings AND Seahawks lose to three NFC teams in final five games (anyone left on their schedule except the Colts).
• Lions finish 4-1 with loss to Rams or Vikings AND Seahawks lose to Colts, Rams, and one other team.
• Lions finish 4-1 with loss to Rams or Vikings AND Seahawks beat Rams AND Seahawks lose to Colts AND Seahawks lose two of three against Falcons, Panthers, and San Francisco AND Lions have higher SOV.

Los Angeles Rams

Since the Lions and Rams have a head-to-head matching remaining, these scenarios are fairly straightforward.

If the Lions lose to the Rams and win the rest of their games, they would need the Rams to go 0-4 against the Cardinals (3-9), Seahawks (9-3), Falcons (4-8), and Cardinals.

That way, the Lions would be 11-6 and the Rams would be 10-7, helping the Lions avoid the head-to-head tiebreaker.

But a win over the Rams would give the Lions a little bit of hope. They would need the Rams to go 2-2 in those other four games so that both teams finish 11-6. Then the Lions would own the tiebreaker.

Recap:

Here’s how the Lions can pass the Rams:

• Lions finish 4-1 AND Lions beat Rams AND Rams lose two of other four games.
• Lions finish 4-1 AND Rams beat Lions AND Rams lose to Arizona twice, Seattle, and Atlanta.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Right now the Buccaneers are in first place in the NFC South, but it’s only by a half-game over the Panthers, and the two teams play twice in the final three weeks.

If the Panthers overtake the Buccaneers in the NFC South, the Lions would stack up well against the Buccaneers because of their head-to-head win.

In fact, there’s no way the Buccaneers can lose the lead to the Panthers in the NFC South and still finish ahead of the Lions if the Lions go 4-1. Both teams are currently 7-5 and the Lions own the tiebreaker.

Recap:

Here’s how the Lions can pass the Buccaneers if the Buccaneers aren’t division winners:

• Lions finish 4-1 AND Buccaneers lose any of their remaining five games.

Philadelphia Eagles

Technically, the Cowboys could still win the NFC East and send the Eagles into the wildcard picture. Philadelphia’s lead in the division is currently 1.5 games.

Let’s say Dallas wins out, which means a win over the Lions. The Eagles would need to lose three of their final five games to fall below the Lions.

The Eagles own the head-to-head tiebreaker, so if the Lions are 11-6, the Eagles would need to fall to 10-7.

Their remaining opponents are the Chargers (8-4), Raiders (2-10), Commanders (3-9), Bills (8-4), and Commanders.

Recap:

Here’s how the Lions can pass the Eagles if the Eagles aren’t division winners:

• Lions finish 4-1 AND Eagles lose three of their final five games.

Final thoughts

Ties involving more than two teams could trigger another series of tiebreakers entirely. But in general, these are all the paths to the postseason if the Lions can get to 11 wins.

Individually, none of these scenarios feel particularly likely. But there are 16 of them, so there’s a pretty good chance at least one would play out.

It all starts with the Lions taking care of business and giving themselves a chance. Maybe a bounce-back win over a red-hot Dallas team would be enough to get them on track.

If the Lions don’t make the playoffs, 2025 will feel like a precious wasted season in the middle of a limited window. The year began with Super Bowl talks, and now it’s devolved into trying to survive the first week of December.

But it’s not over. Not just yet.