DETROIT – If the Detroit Lions win three of their final four games, they’re a virtual lock to get the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.
The Lions officially clinched a playoff spot with their win over the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night, but their seeding is still very much up in the air.
Detroit can end up being any of the seven seeds except the third or fourth seeds. But if the Lions only lose once more, they’re almost guaranteed to earn the NFC’s first-round bye.
Here’s a look at the remaining schedule:
- Dec. 15: vs. Buffalo Bills.
- Dec. 22: at Chicago Bears.
- Dec. 30: at San Francisco 49ers.
- Jan. 4 or 4: vs. Minnesota Vikings.
No. 1 seed guarantees
- Lions finish 4-0.
- Lions finish 3-1 with loss to Bills.
There are two scenarios where the Lions are 100% locks to finish as the No. 1 seed in the NFC: If they win out and if they only lose to the Bills.
Let’s start with the obvious: If the Lions go 16-1, they can’t be caught because every other team in the NFC already has at least two losses.
If the Lions lose to the Bills and then rally to beat the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings, they might end the season tied with the Eagles at 15-2. But in that scenario, the Lions would be 11-1 against the NFC and the Eagles would be 10-2 -- and that’s the first tiebreaker since the Lions and Eagles don’t play head-to-head.
Other 1-loss scenarios
- Lions finish 3-1 with loss to Bears.
- Lions finish 3-1 with loss to 49ers.
- Lions finish 3-1 with loss to Vikings.
If the Lions lose one of these three games and finish the season tied with the Eagles at 15-2, the first three tiebreakers would all be even.
The Lions and Eagles don’t play head-to-head. They would both be 10-2 within the conference. And they would both be 5-1 against their common opponents.
Since the Eagles don’t play the Bears, 49ers, or Vikings, it wouldn’t matter which of those three games the Lions lost. No matter what, in this scenario, the tiebreaker would move to strength of victory.
Whichever team finishes with the higher strength of victory in this scenario would get the No. 1 seed, the first-round bye, and home field advantage all the way through the NFC Championship Game.
The reason the Lions are almost guaranteed to get the top seed in this case is because they hold a nearly insurmountable lead over the Eagles in strength of victory.
Let’s break that down.
Strength of victory: Lions vs. Eagles
What is strength of victory? It’s the combined record of all the teams you’ve beaten.
Just to prove the point that the Lions are in really good shape, let’s play out the worst-case scenario. Technically, from a strength of victory standpoint, losing to the Vikings is the worst of these three outcomes for the Lions, because the Vikings are currently 10-2 and would bolster the Lions' SOV more than the 4-8 Bears or 5-7 49ers.
So let’s say the Lions beat the Bills, Bears, and 49ers and lose to the Vikings. Yes, the Lions would still win the NFC North over the Vikings -- click here for a deep dive into why.
In this scenario, the Lions' strength of victory would be 94-90. The Eagles' would be 78-106.
For the Lions, we can tack on losses for the Bills, Bears (two, because the Lions would have beaten them twice), and 49ers, since the Lions will have beaten them. We can also add one loss since the Eagles will beat the Cowboys, and a win for the Vikings beating the Lions.
For the Eagles, we can tack on losses for the Panthers, Steelers, Commanders (two), Cowboys (two), and Giants (two).
So the Lions' SOV would be 95-95, and the Eagles' SOV would be 78-114. That’s an 18-game lead in overall SOV.
What does that actually mean? Well, that means that over the final five weeks, the Eagles would need the teams they beat that the Lions didn’t beat to make up 18 games' worth of ground over the teams the Lions beat that the Eagles didn’t beat.
That means this group: [Saints, Browns, Giants (double counted), Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders (double counted), Ravens, Panthers, and Steelers] would need to be 18 games better than this group: [Cardinals, Seahawks, Vikings, Titans, Packers, Texans, Colts, Bears (double counted), Bills, and 49ers].
NOTE: The reason the Cowboys aren’t double counted for the Eagles is because the Lions beat the Cowboys once to cancel one out. The same is true for why the Packers aren’t counted twice for the Lions.
Next, let’s go through those opponents for each team and see how many games they have against each other, because those games are guaranteed to be one win and one loss on the record (we’re not going to talk about ties).
Here are the head-to-head matchups between the Eagles' SOV teams:
- Week 14: Giants vs. Saints.
- Week 14: Bengals vs. Cowboys.
- Week 14: Browns vs. Steelers.
- Week 15: Commanders vs. Saints.
- Week 15: Giants vs. Ravens.
- Week 15: Cowboys vs. Panthers.
- Week 16: Browns vs. Bengals.
- Week 16: Ravens vs. Steelers.
- Week 18: Commanders vs. Cowboys.
- Week 18: Browns vs. Ravens.
- Week 18: Bengals vs. Steelers.
That’s 11 games that will result in 11 wins and 11 losses for the Eagles' SOV. So their updated SOV is 89-125. (NOTE: In games involving the Giants and Commanders, the Eagles can still pick up an extra win, since they played those teams twice and they count double. More on that in a moment).
That leaves the following opportunities for the Eagles' SOV to improve (in comparison with the Lions' SOV):
- Week 14: Giants beat Saints (2-1).
- Week 15: Bengals beat Titans.
- Week 15: Giants beat Ravens (2-1).
- Week 15: Commanders beat Saints (2-1).
- Week 15: Browns beat Chiefs.
- Week 16: Giants beat Falcons (counts double).
- Week 16: Saints beat Packers.
- Week 16: Cowboys beat Buccaneers.
- Week 16: Panthers beat Cardinals.
- Week 17: Commanders beat Falcons (counts double).
- Week 17: Giants beat Colts (counts double).
- Week 17: Saints beat Raiders.
- Week 17: Browns beat Dolphins.
- Week 17: Bengals beat Broncos.
- Week 17: Ravens beat Texans.
- Week 17: Panthers beat Buccaneers.
- Week 17: Steelers beat Chiefs.
- Week 18: Commanders beat Cowboys (2-1).
- Week 18: Saints beat Buccaneers.
- Week 18: Panthers beat Falcons.
- Week 18: Packers beat Bears (since this is an automatic 2-2 for Lions either way).
That’s 24 opportunities. That means the Eagles can pick up a maximum of 24 “SOV wins” if every single one of these games goes their way.
Now let’s do the same exercise for the Lions. Here are the head-to-head matchups that will automatically result in one win and loss loss on their SOV:
- Week 14: Cardinals vs. Seahawks.
- Week 14: Bears vs. 49ers.
- Week 15: Seahawks vs. Packers.
- Week 15: Seahawks vs. Packers.
- Week 15: Bears vs. Vikings.
- Week 16: Seahawks vs. Vikings.
- Week 16: Titans vs. Colts.
- Week 17: Vikings vs. Packers.
- Week 17: Bears vs. Seahawks.
- Week 18: Cardinals vs. 49ers.
- Week 18: Titans vs. Texans.
- Week 18: Bears vs. Packers (2-2 for Lions).
- Week 18: Texans vs. Titans.
That’s 14-14 added for the Lions, putting their SOV at 109-109.
That leaves the following opportunities for the Lions' SOV to improve (in comparison with the Eagles' SOV):
- Week 14: Vikings beat Falcons.
- Week 14: Titans beat Jaguars.
- Week 14: Bills beat Rams.
- Week 14: Bears beat 49ers (2-1).
- Week 15: Bears beat Vikings (2-1).
- Week 15: Cardinals beat Patriots.
- Week 15: Titans beat Bengals.
- Week 15: Texans beat Dolphins.
- Week 15: Colts beat Broncos.
- Week 15: 49ers beat Rams.
- Week 16: Texans beat Chiefs.
- Week 16: Cardinals beat Panthers.
- Week 16: Packers beat Saints.
- Week 16: Bills beat Patriots.
- Week 16: 49ers beat Dolphins.
- Week 17: Texans beat Ravens.
- Week 17: Cardinals beat Rams.
- Week 17: Bears beat Seahawks (2-1).
- Week 17: Titans beat Jaguars (again).
- Week 17: Colts beat Giants.
- Week 17: Bills beat Jets.
- Week 18: Seahawks beat Rams.
- Week 18: Colts beat Jaguars.
- Week 18: Bills beat Patriots (again).
In total, that’s 24 opportunities for the Lions to pick up “SOV wins.”
OK, so I’ve thrown a lot of data at you. Here’s what this all means.
There are 24 games left in this scenario that could help the Eagles pick up ground on the Lions. On the other hand, there are 24 opportunities for the Lions to pick up ground on the Eagles.
Since the Eagles need to make up 18 games' worth of ground, it’s almost impossible that they can catch the Lions in SOV. They would need nearly all of their games to go their way, and nearly all of the Lions' games to go the opposite way.
It’s just not going to happen.
Obviously, the numbers would change a little bit if we switched the Lions' hypothetical loss to the Bears or 49ers, but it would be largely the same exercise, with the bonus of adding the 10-2 Vikings as a double opponent for the Lions' SOV.
Long story short: It doesn’t really matter if the Lions lose one of their last four games. They would still almost certainly get the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
