DETROIT – Will the Detroit Lions automatically get the No. 1 seed in the NFC if they finish the season with a 15-2 record, regardless of who their final loss comes against?
If you’ve been following along the last couple of weeks, we’ve been keeping track of the tiebreakers between the Lions and the two teams who have remained hot on their tail: the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings.
Now that Week 14 is fully in the books, it’s time for an update.
What we already knew
We know that if the Lions finish 4-0, they will get the No. 1 seed based on record alone.
LAST WEEK: Why it’s almost guaranteed Lions will get No. 1 seed if they only lose 1 more game
It’s also clear that the Lions would get the No. 1 overall seed if their only loss came to the Bills, because their conference record would be the tiebreaker over the Eagles (an 11-1 NFC record for the Lions vs. 10-2 for the Eagles).
We also established after Detroit’s win over the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night that a 3-1 finish would guarantee the Lions another NFC North title.
Obviously, a win over the Vikings in Week 18 would make it a nice, clean division title for Detroit. But even if the Lions lose that rematch with the Vikings, as long as they beat the Bills, Bears, and 49ers, they would have the same division record as Minnesota.
The tiebreaker would move to records against common opponents, and since the Vikings lost to the Rams, the Lions would win that tiebreaker.
But what about the No. 1 seed if the Lions lose to either the Bears, 49ers, or Vikings? Last week we established that the strength of victory tiebreaker would almost certainly favor the Lions over the Eagles.
Let’s take an updated look at those scenarios.
Current SOV breakdown
Strength of victory is the NFL tiebreaker that comes after head-to-head, conference record, and record against common opponents. If the Lions go 3-1 with a loss to either the Bears, 49ers, or Vikings, and the Eagles finish 4-0, then the Lions and Eagles would both be 10-2 in the NFC and 5-1 against common opponents.
Right now, here are the respective strength of victory records for the Lions and Eagles -- in other words, the combined records of all the teams they have already beaten:
- Lions: 79-77.
- Eagles: 58-85.
I want to reiterate that if the Lions' only remaining loss is to the Bills, then the tiebreaker doesn’t even get to strength of victory. The Lions would get the No. 1 seed based on conference record.
For that reason, let’s add the Bills to the Lions' SOV for this discussion, since we’re assuming a win in that game.
We’re also assuming that the Eagles win their final four games, so we can add the Steelers, Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants to Philadelphia’s SOV.
Updated SOV numbers:
- Lions: 89-80.
- Eagles: 83-112.
Now, here are the Lions' SOV numbers for each of the three scenarios we’re going to break down:
- If the Lions only lose to the Bears: 106-89.
- If the Lions only lose to the 49ers: 104-91.
- If the Lions only lose to the Vikings: 99-96.
We can also add a few more games to the SOV numbers.
For the Eagles, we know their opponents are going to lose four additional games against the Eagles. We can also add three additional losses for the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants, since this will be the second time the Eagles beat them.
For the Lions, we can add three losses for the Lions' three wins down the stretch. We can also add a loss for the Eagles beating the Cowboys, since the Cowboys are also a team the Lions defeated. Lastly, since the Lions previously beat the Bears and Vikings, we have to add a win or a loss for each of those teams accordingly, depending on the scenario.
So from everything we can already calculate, here are the final SOV numbers before we break down the scenarios:
- Eagles: 83-119.
- The Lions if they only lose to the Bears: 107-94.
- The Lions if they only lose to the 49ers: 104-97.
- The Lions if they only lose to the Vikings: 100-101.
Explaining how Eagles can make up ground in SOV
OK, so how do the Eagles make up ground in strength of victory?
To put it simply: They need teams they beat to win and they need teams the Lions beat to lose.
One of the problems for the Eagles is that they have some teams in common with the Lions. For example, it doesn’t help much if the Jaguars win games because the Lions also beat the Jaguars.
So we can mostly cancel out the wins that the Eagles and Lions have in common: The Rams and Jaguars, as well as one Cowboys win for the Eagles and one Packers win for the Lions.
Since the Lions beat the Packers twice and the Eagles beat them once, the Packers really only count as one SOV team for the Lions, when compared to the Eagles. The same is true for the Cowboys from the Eagles' perspective.
One more note on the Rams and Jaguars: When they’re playing another team that the Lions beat, it’s actually beneficial for the Eagles to have the Rams and Jaguars win. For example, when the Rams play the Cardinals, the Lions will get one win and one loss on their SOV no matter what. But the Eagles can get a win from the Rams or a loss from the Rams. So that’s why you’ll see some Rams and Jaguars games still included.
The Eagles also have a couple of Giants and Commanders games that will count double, since they beat those teams twice.
The reason none of the Bears or Vikings games will count double for the Lions is because all of their remaining games are either against the Lions or a team the Lions have defeated. We’ve already explained why the Packers don’t count double (because the Eagles beat them once, too).
OK, let’s dive into these three scenarios.
If Lions lose to Bears in Week 16
- Lions SOV in this scenario: 107-94.
- Eagles SOV in this scenario: 83-119.
- Lions lead Eagles in SOV by 24.5 games.
Of these three scenarios, this one is the worst for the Eagles, because the Bears have a worse record than the 49ers and Vikings. Therefore, the Lions go into this discussion with a massive 24.5-game lead in SOV.
Here are the games between Lions SOV teams that would automatically result in one win and one loss getting added to Detroit’s SOV:
- Week 15: Seahawks vs. Packers
- Week 15: Vikings vs. Bears
- Week 16: Seahawks vs. Vikings
- Week 16: Titans vs. Colts
- Week 17: Seahawks vs. Bears
- Week 17: Packers vs. Vikings (counts double -- 2-2)
- Week 18: Cardinals vs. 49ers
- Week 18: Titans vs. Texans
- Week 18: Packers vs. Bears
And here are the games that would cancel out for the Eagles:
- Week 15: Saints vs. Commanders
- Week 15: Giants vs. Ravens
- Week 15: Cowboys vs. Panthers
- Week 16: Ravens vs. Steelers
- Week 16: Browns vs. Bengals
- Week 18: Browns vs. Ravens
- Week 18: Bengals vs. Steelers
- Week 18: Cowboys vs. Commanders (counts double -- 2-2)
So here are the updated SOVs:
- Lions: 117-104.
- Eagles: 92-128.
The Eagles would gain a half-game for each of these results going forward:
- Week 15: Commanders beat Saints
- Week 15: Browns beat Chiefs
- Week 15: Giants beat Ravens
- Week 15: Bengals beat Titans
- Week 15: Rams beat 49ers
- Week 16: Saints beat Packers
- Week 16: Giants beat Falcons (counts double)
- Week 16: Cowboys beat Buccaneers
- Week 16: Panthers beat Cardinals
- Week 17: Saints beat Raiders
- Week 17: Browns beat Dolphins
- Week 17: Giants beat Colts (counts double)
- Week 17: Bengals beat Broncos
- Week 17: Commanders beat Falcons (counts double)
- Week 17: Ravens beat Texans
- Week 17: Panthers beat Buccaneers
- Week 17: Steelers beat Chiefs
- Week 17: Rams beat Cardinals
- Week 17: Packers beat Vikings
- Week 17: Jaguars beat Titans
- Week 18: Saints beat Buccaneers
- Week 18: Panthers beat Falcons
- Week 18: Rams beat Seahawks
- Week 18: Jaguars beat Colts
The Lions would gain a half-game for each of these results going forward, and the Eagles gain a half-game for each one of these that doesn’t happen:
- Week 15: Cardinals beat Patriots
- Week 15: Titans beat Bengals
- Week 15: Texans beat Dolphins
- Week 15: Colts beat Broncos
- Week 15: Vikings beat Bears
- Week 15: 49ers beat Rams
- Week 16: Cardinals beat Panthers
- Week 16: Vikings beat Seahawks
- Week 16: Bills beat Patriots
- Week 16: Packers beat Saints
- Week 16: Texans beat Chiefs
- Week 16: 49ers beat Dolphins
- Week 17: Cardinals beat Rams
- Week 17: Titans beat Jaguars
- Week 17: Colts beat Giants
- Week 17: Texans beat Ravens
- Week 17: Bills beat Jets
- Week 18: Seahawks beat Rams
- Week 18: Colts beat Jaguars
- Week 18: Bills beat Patriots
- Week 18: Cowboys beat Commanders
The Eagles can gain 27 games' worth of ground, and the Lions can lose 21 games' worth of ground.
Let’s say literally every single one of these 33 games (there are some that overlap) go Philadelphia’s way. The Eagles would make up 24 games' worth of ground.
If even one of those games goes against the Eagles, the Lions’ strength of victory would be out of reach.
If Lions lose to 49ers in Week 17
- Lions SOV in this scenario: 104-97.
- Eagles SOV in this scenario: 83-119.
- Lions lead Eagles in SOV by 21.5 games.
As you can see, the margin is a little bit smaller for the Eagles, but still likely insurmountable.
Here are the games between Lions SOV teams that would automatically result in one win and one loss getting added to Detroit’s SOV:
- Week 15: Seahawks vs. Packers
- Week 15: Vikings vs. Bears (counts double -- 2-2)
- Week 16: Seahawks vs. Vikings
- Week 16: Titans vs. Colts
- Week 17: Seahawks vs. Bears
- Week 17: Packers vs. Vikings (counts double -- 2-2)
- Week 18: Titans vs. Texans
- Week 18: Packers vs. Bears (counts double -- 2-2)
And here are the games that would cancel out for the Eagles:
- Week 15: Saints vs. Commanders
- Week 15: Giants vs. Ravens
- Week 15: Cowboys vs. Panthers
- Week 16: Ravens vs. Steelers
- Week 16: Browns vs. Bengals
- Week 18: Browns vs. Ravens
- Week 18: Bengals vs. Steelers
- Week 18: Cowboys vs. Commanders (counts double -- 2-2)
So here are the updated SOVs:
- Lions: 115-108.
- Eagles: 92-128.
The Eagles would gain a half-game for each of these results going forward:
- Week 15: Commanders beat Saints
- Week 15: Browns beat Chiefs
- Week 15: Giants beat Ravens
- Week 15: Bengals beat Titans
- Week 16: Saints beat Packers
- Week 16: Giants beat Falcons (counts double)
- Week 16: Cowboys beat Buccaneers
- Week 16: Panthers beat Cardinals
- Week 17: Saints beat Raiders
- Week 17: Browns beat Dolphins
- Week 17: Giants beat Colts (counts double)
- Week 17: Bengals beat Broncos
- Week 17: Commanders beat Falcons (counts double)
- Week 17: Ravens beat Texans
- Week 17: Panthers beat Buccaneers
- Week 17: Steelers beat Chiefs
- Week 17: Rams beat Cardinals
- Week 17: Jaguars beat Titans
- Week 17: Packers beat Vikings
- Week 18: Saints beat Buccaneers
- Week 18: Panthers beat Falcons
- Week 18: Packers beat Bears
- Week 18: Rams beat Seahawks
- Week 18: Jaguars beat Colts
The Lions would gain a half-game for each of these results going forward, and the Eagles gain a half-game for each one of these that doesn’t happen:
- Week 15: Cardinals beat Patriots
- Week 15: Titans beat Bengals
- Week 15: Texans beat Dolphins
- Week 15: Colts beat Broncos
- Week 16: Cardinals beat Panthers
- Week 16: Vikings beat Seahawks
- Week 16: Texans beat Chiefs
- Week 16: Packers beat Saints
- Week 16: Bills beat Patriots
- Week 17: Cardinals beat Rams
- Week 17: Titans beat Jaguars
- Week 17: Bears beat Seahawks
- Week 17: Texans beat Ravens
- Week 17: Colts beat Giants
- Week 17: Bills beat Jets
- Week 18: Cardinals beat 49ers
- Week 18: Seahawks beat Rams
- Week 18: Colts beat Jaguars
- Week 18: Bills beat Patriots
- Week 18: Cowboys beat Commanders
The Eagles can gain 27 games' worth of ground, and the Lions can lose 20 games' worth of ground.
Let’s say literally every single one of these games go Philadelphia’s way. The Eagles would make up 23.5 games' worth of ground.
Since the Eagles need to make up 21.5 games' worth of ground in this scenario, there’s almost no room for error.
If Lions lose to Vikings in Week 18
- Lions SOV in this scenario: 100-101.
- Eagles SOV in this scenario: 83-119.
- Lions lead Eagles in SOV by 17.5 games.
This is the scenario of the three that gives Philadelphia the best chance, but a 17.5-game lead is still enormous in this conversation.
Here are the games between Lions SOV teams that would automatically result in one win and one loss getting added to Detroit’s SOV:
- Week 15: Seahawks vs. Packers
- Week 15: Vikings vs. Bears
- Week 16: Seahawks vs. Vikings
- Week 16: Titans vs. Colts
- Week 17: Seahawks vs. Bears
- Week 17: Packers vs. Vikings
- Week 18: Cardinals vs. 49ers
- Week 18: Titans vs. Texans
- Week 18: Packers vs. Bears (counts double -- 2-2)
And here are the games that would cancel out for the Eagles:
- Week 15: Saints vs. Commanders
- Week 15: Giants vs. Ravens
- Week 15: Cowboys vs. Panthers
- Week 16: Ravens vs. Steelers
- Week 16: Browns vs. Bengals
- Week 18: Browns vs. Ravens
- Week 18: Bengals vs. Steelers
- Week 18: Cowboys vs. Commanders (counts double -- 2-2)
So here are the updated SOVs:
- Lions: 110-111.
- Eagles: 92-128.
The Eagles would gain a half-game for each of these results going forward:
- Week 15: Commanders beat Saints
- Week 15: Browns beat Chiefs
- Week 15: Giants beat Ravens
- Week 15: Bengals beat Titans
- Week 15: Rams beat 49ers
- Week 16: Saints beat Packers
- Week 16: Giants beat Falcons (counts double)
- Week 16: Cowboys beat Buccaneers
- Week 16: Panthers beat Cardinals
- Week 17: Saints beat Raiders
- Week 17: Browns beat Dolphins
- Week 17: Giants beat Colts (counts double)
- Week 17: Bengals beat Broncos
- Week 17: Commanders beat Falcons (counts double)
- Week 17: Ravens beat Texans
- Week 17: Panthers beat Buccaneers
- Week 17: Steelers beat Chiefs
- Week 17: Rams beat Cardinals
- Week 17: Jaguars beat Titans
- Week 18: Saints beat Buccaneers
- Week 18: Panthers beat Falcons
- Week 18: Rams beat Seahawks
- Week 18: Packers beat Bears
- Week 18: Jaguars beat Colts
The Lions would gain a half-game for each of these results going forward, and the Eagles gain a half-game for each one of these that doesn’t happen:
- Week 15: Cardinals beat Patriots
- Week 15: Titans beat Bengals
- Week 15: Texans beat Dolphins
- Week 15: Colts beat Broncos
- Week 15: Bears beat Vikings
- Week 15: 49ers beat Rams
- Week 16: Cardinals beat Panthers
- Week 16: Texans beat Chiefs
- Week 16: Packers beat Saints
- Week 16: Bills beat Patriots
- Week 16: 49ers beat Dolphins
- Week 17: Cardinals beat Rams
- Week 17: Bears beat Seahawks
- Week 17: Titans beat Jaguars
- Week 17: Colts beat Giants
- Week 17: Texans beat Ravens
- Week 17: Bills beat Jets
- Week 18: Seahawks beat Rams
- Week 18: Colts beat Jaguars
- Week 18: Bills beat Patriots
- Week 18: Cowboys beat Commanders
The Eagles can gain 27 games' worth of ground, and the Lions can lose 21 games' worth of ground.
Let’s say literally every single one of these games go Philadelphia’s way. The Eagles would make up 24 games' worth of ground.
It might sound like a 17.5-game lead isn’t that bad with 24 possible games to make up, but that’s only in comparison to the other two scenarios. This is still an extremely steep hill to climb for the Eagles.
