DETROIT – The race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC is down to three teams: the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings.
Sunday brought some clarity to the race for the top spot in the conference, as the Eagles finally dropped a game and put the Lions and Vikings firmly in the driver’s seat.
Both NFC North contenders control their own destiny for that critical first-round bye and home field advantage through the NFC Championship Game. But that doesn’t mean the Eagles are out of it.
Here’s how each of those teams can get the No. 1 seed.
Detroit Lions
- Scenario 1: Lions beat 49ers (Week 17) and Vikings (Week 18).
- Scenario 2: Lions beat Vikings (Week 18).
- Scenario 3: Lions beat 49ers (Week 17) and Packers beat Vikings (Week 17).
If the Vikings lose to the Packers next week, then the Lions can clinch the No. 1 seed on Monday Night Football against the San Francisco 49ers.
The reason: Detroit has locked up tiebreakers against both the Eagles and Vikings. So any situation that ends with the Lions tied for the best record in the league results in them earning the top seed.
Obviously, beating the Vikings head-to-head for a second time would lock up the NFC North and the No. 1 seed for the Lions, regardless of what happens in San Francisco.
The Lions can’t get the No. 1 seed if they lose both of their final two games because the Vikings would end up with a better record, even if they lose to the Packers in Week 17.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Only scenario: Eagles beat Cowboys (Week 17) and Giants (Week 18), Lions lose to 49ers (Week 17) and Vikings (Week 18), and Vikings lose to Packers (Week 17).
If you think this looks grim for the Eagles, you’re right. They need the Lions to lose their last two games because they can’t afford to finish with the same record.
But the Eagles do have a path to the No. 1 seed through a tiebreaker with Minnesota. If the Vikings lose to the Packers before beating the Lions, then both Philadelphia and Minnesota would be 14-3.
In that scenario, since there’s no head-to-head meeting, the tiebreaker would move to conference record. Both teams would be 9-3 in the conference, so the tiebreaker would move to record against common opponents.
Since the Vikings would have lost to the Rams and Packers, while the Eagles only lost to the Falcons, the Eagles would win that tiebreaker and get the No. 1 seed.
The Lions, at 13-4, would be the No. 5 seed.
If the Lions beat the 49ers and finished in a three-way tie at 14-3, they would earn the tiebreaker over the Vikings due to divisional record, and then the tiebreaker over the Eagles due to conference record. That’s why the Eagles need the Lions to lose both games.
Minnesota Vikings
- Scenario 1: Vikings beat Packers (Week 17) and Lions (Week 18).
- Scenario 2: Vikings beat Lions (Week 18), 49ers beat Lions (Week 17), and Eagles lose to Cowboys (Week 17) AND/OR Giants (Week 18).
This is why the Vikings still control their own destiny. If they win out, they’re the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
But if they lose to the Packers in Week 17, all hope is not necessarily lost. They would need the Lions to lose in San Francisco and the Eagles to lose at least one of their final two games. Then, a win in Detroit would put Minnesota back on top.
