DETROIT – The Detroit Tigers appear to be all-in on the third base market right now, whether it’s free agent negotiations with Alex Bregman or trade talk surrounding Nolan Arenado.
As enjoyable as the 2024 turned out to be for the Tigers, they entered the offseason with one very glaring weakness in the everyday lineup.
Sure, they needed to upgrade on the right side of the infield, and they did that with the signing of Gleyber Torres and subsequent move of Colt Keith to first base. But third base has been a revolving door since the departure of Jeimer Candelario.
Last season, the Tigers got a combined .643 OPS from the third base position, including a .234 average, .294 on-base percentage, and only 11 home runs. Matt Vierling filled in adequately on a part-time bases, but he’s a better fit in the outfield.
Top 100 prospect Jace Jung got the call to the big leagues late in the year, but he didn’t play on a full-time basis. He struggled defensively and managed just 19 hits compared to 29 strikeouts in 94 plate appearances.
Jung showed an impressive eye at the plate, drawing 15 walks and posting a .362 OBP, so don’t give up on him long-term. But the Tigers clearly aren’t comfortable with him manning third or second base full-time at the moment.
So for the second offseason in a row, we’ll ask the question: Who’s the primary third baseman for the Detroit Tigers?
Alex Bregman
The Tigers have been linked to Bregman since free agency began, not only because of the obvious fit, but also due to his connection with manager A.J. Hinch.
Bregman played for Hinch in Houston, so there’s some familiarity there. He can also check several boxes for the Tigers: He’s right-handed. He’s a veteran with postseason experience. He’s a strong defender with an elite eye at the plate.
The Tigers clearly didn’t have any interest handing Bregman the $200 million contract he reportedly sought early in the offseason, and that’s easy to understand. Bregman is already 30 years old, and his quality of contact metrics are average.
A move to the AL Central would likely make Bregman more of a 20-homer guy than the 25 range he’s lived in the last three years. He would still be a heart-of-the-order bat, but the Tigers' lineup is lacking power from the right side.
Still, Bregman has been a borderline star every time he’s played a full season. In six such years, he’s averaged 5.7 WAR, and never been below 4.0. An average season for Bregman over the past three years was a .260 average, .349 OBP, 34 doubles, and 26 homers.
Yeah, the Tigers would take that.
Scott Harris has preached the importance of mastering the strike zone since the day he was introduced as the Tigers' team president, and Bregman has walked nearly as much as he’s struck out during his career. In fact, his walks surpassed his strikeouts in back-to-back seasons in 2022-2023.
So if you think it’s a no-brainer that the Tigers should add Bregman, you’re right! This match makes a lot of sense. Fortunately, pretty much every mention of Bregman’s market includes Detroit, so there’s a chance.
Nolan Arenado
This is a much more recent development.
On Thursday morning, Jon Morosi was on MLB Network to discuss the trade market surrounding Arenado. And the Tigers popped up.
Arenado has three years left on his deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s owed $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027. His former team, the Colorado Rockies, are on the hook for $5 million each of the next two years, so the total price for three years of Arenado is currently $64 million.
Arenado has a no-trade clause that includes Detroit, but Morosi hinted Thursday that this late in the offseason, the Tigers are starting to look a bit more attractive.
“I was told by a source last night that it’s not necessarily Boston or bust for Arenado, that there is an open-mindedness on his part that -- perhaps after the Houston possibility went away -- that he would be willing to entertain spots that are not Boston,” Morosi said. “Perhaps a team like the Mariners, or a team like the Tigers, both of whom are known to be involved in the markets for various bats that are still out there -- that Arenado is at least open minded to places like Detroit or Seattle in a way that he might not have been a month ago when more options were there in front of him.”
Morosi noted that Boston is still probably at the top of the list for Arenado, but over the past 24 hours, he’s learned that other teams could be in the mix.
Cardinals beat writer Jeff Jones confirmed on social media that Detroit “is another (destination) I heard about,” though he pointed out that the Tigers could simply be keeping their pulse on the third base market to help with Bregman negotiations.
Arenado isn’t as snug of a style fit for the Tigers, as he regularly posts below-average walk rates and sub-.330 OBPs (four of the past five seasons).
But he’s still a very solid player, and would be an obvious upgrade for the Tigers.
Arenado won 10 straight Gold Glove awards at third base from his rookie year in 2013 through the 2022 season. He’s also won the Platinum Glove six times as the best overall defender in the National League.
Offensively, Arenado is starting to fade -- not a surprise given his age (34 in April) and his departure from Coors Field in Colorado.
Last season, he finished with 23 doubles, 16 homers, and a .272/.325/.394 slash line in 152 games. He was basically an average MLB hitter (101 OPS+, where 100 is league average).
It’s a continuation of the trend from 2023, when Arenado went from a third-place MVP finish the year prior to the worst non-COVID stats of his career: A .266 average, .774 OPS, and 26 homers.
His hard-hit metrics have never been overly impressive. Arenado knows how to pull the ball in the air and maximize his power. Comerica Park isn’t necessarily an ideal spot for that offensive mantra -- Arenado would have had just 11 homers in Comerica last season.
If the Tigers strike out on Bregman, this could be a solid backup plan. Arenado is a 12-year vet, a professional hitter, and a strong defender. And it probably wouldn’t take much to acquire him from the Cardinals if the Tigers are willing to pay most of the remaining contract.
Other options
If the Tigers don’t land Bregman or Arenado, the other external options are... not appealing.
Josh Rojas -- a defense-first guy -- signed with the White Sox, and old friend Gio Urshela is back in Atlanta. I’m not convinced those players are better than what the Tigers already have, which says all you need to know about the rest of the free agents.
If the Tigers don’t hook one of the big fish, they’ll probably piece third base together internally with some combination of Vierling (51 games at third last year), Jung (27), Zach McKinstry (38), and Andy Ibanez (19).
Those players are all fine, but third base would likely end up being a weakness for the Tigers again. It would also take Vierling out of the outfield mix at times -- another con.
Final thoughts
The Tigers' roster isn’t sexy, but it should be fairly competitive again next season. As it stands, I’d say it’s more a playoff hopeful than a legit World Series contender.
The lineup is solid, with Riley Greene (LF), Kerry Carpenter (DH/RF), Torres (2B), Keith (1B), and Parker Meadows (CF) cemented at their positions.
Vierling is a good player and someone who deserves at-bats, even on a contending team. Jake Rogers is fine, and Wenceel Perez, Ibanez, and McKinstry are serviceable bench bats.
But a hitter like Bregman in the heart of the order would really give this lineup a lift.
The lineup would probably look like this against right-handed starters:
- Gleyber Torres, 2B
- Riley Greene, LF
- Alex Bregman, 3B
- Kerry Carpenter, DH
- Colt Keith, 1B
- Matt Vierling, RF
- Parker Meadows, CF
- Jake Rogers, C
- Trey Sweeney, SS
And something like this against left-handed starters:
- Gleyber Torres, 2B
- Riley Greene, LF
- Alex Bregman, 3B
- Kerry Carpenter, DH
- Matt Vierling, RF
- Javier Baez, SS
- Colt Keith, 1B
- Jake Rogers, C
- Parker Meadows, CF
You know what? That’s not terrible. Greene-Bregman-Carpenter sounds really, really nice.
This could probably be an MLB average offense, and with what the Tigers have done on the mound during the Chris Fetter era, it just might get them back in the playoffs.
I’ve gone back and forth on whether the Tigers should sign Bregman because of the insane dollar amounts that were thrown out earlier in the offseason. But now that it seems the market has cooled a bit, it’s clear what the Tigers should do.
Bregman is a great fit. Arenado wouldn’t be bad, either. If the Tigers make a move to solidify the position, the excitement heading into spring training will be at its highest in a decade.
