ANN ARBOR, Mich. – Michigan basketball did it again Thursday.
The Wolverines got outplayed by Rutgers all night, but in the end, they found a way to escape with their eighth one-possession win of the conference season.
It’s an unsustainable way to live. Michigan has won a whopping 11 games by four points or fewer. But here we are, heading into March, and Dusty May has his team tied for first place in the Big Ten.
So that inevitable regression -- it’s running out of time.
One season after posting a program-worst 8-24 record, Michigan is 22-6 and locked into a solid seed in the NCAA Tournament. As nice as that sounds, the Wolverines probably aren’t as good as that record suggests.
Most teams would expect to win about half of their tossup games, but Michigan is 11-4. Every single Michigan win since Jan. 13 has come by fewer than five points.
The line between victory and defeat has been razor thin for the Wolverines, as is the line between a potential conference championship and what might have been a very disappointing season.
Just imagine if these six plays had gone the other way:
Nimari Burnett’s buzzer beater
- Final score: Michigan 84, Rutgers 82.
Let’s start with Thursday night, because it’s the most obvious example of Michigan snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
The score was 82-81 Rutgers when the clock officially struck zero, just milliseconds before Nimari Burnett’s shot fell through and sent the Crisler Center into a frenzy.
If Burnett didn’t drill that 28-footer, the Wolverines would have lost at home as a 9.5-point favorite.
Missed 3 at Nebraska
- Final score: Michigan 49, Nebraska 46.
Michigan and Nebraska played one of the ugliest games of the modern era earlier this week, and Michigan probably should not have come out on top.
With a 1-point lead and 11.8 seconds to play, Roddy Gayle missed the front end of a 1-and-1 to give Nebraska one last chance.
Connor Essegian, a 39% three-point shooter on the season, got an open look from beyond the arc with six seconds left, but he missed badly off the front of the rim, and Michigan escaped.
Vlad Goldin’s rebound
- Final score: Michigan 75, Purdue 73.
The moment that really stood out in Michigan’s trajectory-shifting win over Purdue came with two minutes left on the clock.
Michigan led 68-67 and Vlad Goldin made an incredible block on a Caleb Furst dunk attempt.
Vlad came down with the rebound, but then he fell on the floor.
Every time I watch it, I have no idea how it wasn’t called a travel. Instead, Furst was called for a foul, and Goldin got two free throws.
He made both. Michigan ultimately won the game by two points, with Braden Smith missing a three at the buzzer to try to win it.
We don’t know for sure that Michigan would have lost if a travel was called, but based on how the game turned out, it sure felt like a turning point.
Tre Donaldson catches fire
- Final score: Michigan 76, Penn State 72.
It was the most critical two-minute stretch of the season.
With 1:50 left in a home game against Penn State -- a team that might not even make the Big Ten Tournament -- Michigan trailed by five points.
Dusty May called a timeout and drew up a beautiful play from Tre Donaldson to Gayle for a bucket, and Donaldson scored again on the following possession to pull Michigan within one.
The game-deciding play came on the following possession. With 28 seconds left and Michigan down 72-71, Donaldson dribbled into a step-back three right in front of Michigan’s bench and drained it.
Instead of having to foul Penn State (which was in the double bonus) with about 25 seconds left, Michigan took the lead for good, and won the game with a defensive stop.
Jalen Leach ejection
- Final score: Michigan 80, Northwestern 76 (in overtime).
Michigan got a gift in its home game against Northwestern when Jalen Leach, who went off for 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting, got ejected for kicking Goldin between the legs.
At the time, Michigan trailed Northwestern 54-51 with 9:23 left in the game. Goldin set a screen on Leach, who raised his leg in a very un-basketball-movement-like way.
Not only did Leach get ejected, but Goldin made two free throws and Michigan got the ball back, eventually scoring two more points to take the lead.
The game ultimately went to overtime, so it’s fair to say a possession that resulted in four points for Michigan and Northwestern losing Leach saved the Wolverines from a loss in regulation.
Iowa misses at buzzer
- Final score: Michigan 85, Iowa 83.
It feels like a lifetime ago, but Michigan has been playing with fire since before Christmas.
On Dec. 7, 2024, in their matchup with Iowa, Michigan held an 85-83 lead with 1.5 seconds remaining.
The Hawkeyes inbounded the ball to Payton Sandfort, a 34% three-point shooter who is averaging 16.4 points per game for the second-straight year.
Burnett played excellent defense and forced a difficult shot in the corner, and it clanged off the rim. A foot further and Iowa would have pulled off a stunning last-second victory, similar to what Michigan just did to Rutgers.
What does it mean?
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that Michigan should have lost all of these games. Three of these plays (Rutgers, Penn State, and Iowa) were examples of Michigan coming up with a play in a key moment.
But that’s a dangerous way to live.
Each of these six games easily could have gone in the other direction, and that would leave Michigan’s current record at 16-12 -- not even an NCAA Tournament team, let alone a Big Ten title contender.
So if you hear opposing fans calling Michigan a fraud, that’s why. Whether they’re right or wrong will be determined over the next few weeks, when Michigan plays Illinois, Maryland, and Michigan State before heading into the postseason.
Maybe this Michigan team is just exceptional in crunch time. Or maybe all this good fortune will run out.
Either way, it’s March, and the Wolverines still have a chance to be Big Ten champs. That’s pretty incredible, considering where this program stood a year ago.
