ANN ARBOR, Mich. – Michigan basketball only has one game left, but there are still several possible seeding scenarios for the Big Ten Tournament, especially with tiebreakers.
Here’s every possible seed the Wolverines could get in the conference tournament, with an explanation.
No. 2 seed
How it can happen:
- Michigan beats Michigan State.
- Northwestern beats Maryland AND Wisconsin beats Penn State.
- Northwestern beats Maryland AND Illinois beats Purdue.
Michigan can secure the No. 2 seed with a win over Michigan State at the Breslin Center this weekend, but based on how those two teams are playing right now, that’s not likely.
In order for Michigan to get the No. 2 seed with a loss in East Lansing, Northwestern would have to upset Maryland. The reason: If Maryland is involved in a head-to-head tiebreaker -- even one that also involves Wisconsin and/or Purdue -- Michigan cannot win that tiebreaker.
If Maryland loses, Michigan either needs Wisconsin to beat Penn State or Purdue to lose to Illinois. If Michigan gets into a tiebreaker with Purdue, it loses (oddly, because of their comparative records against Illinois). But a tiebreaker against both Purdue and Wisconsin (or just against Wisconsin) goes Michigan’s way.
Long story short: If Michigan loses to Michigan State, it is very unlikely to get the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
No. 3 seed
How it can happen:
- Michigan State beats Michigan AND Maryland beats Northwestern AND Illinois beats Purdue.
- Michigan State beats Michigan AND Penn State beats Wisconsin AND Northwestern beats Maryland AND Purdue beats Illinois.
There’s a solid chance of that top scenario playing out. Even though Purdue is a slightly better team than Illinois, it’s tough to win on the road in the Big Ten. So there’s definitely a chance for Michigan to get some help.
The second bullet point is incredibly unlikely. If Penn State and Northwestern both pull massive road upsets, Michigan will be counting its blessings.
No. 4 seed
How it can happen:
- Michigan State beats Michigan AND Maryland beats Northwestern AND Purdue beats Illinois.
This might be the most likely scenario. Michigan State and Maryland are the two best teams in the conference right now, and Purdue has gotten back on track over the past week.
We’ll know by the end of this game on Friday night whether Michigan is in position to be the No. 3 seed or the No. 4 seed.
