DETROIT – Spring training is over, and the Detroit Tigers are in Los Angeles for their season-opening set against the Dodgers.
There’s no better test than starting a season on the road against the defending World Series champs. Tarik Skubal and the Tigers will immediately get a chance to see how they stack up against the definitive favorites.
But before we get to that, I want to offload some thoughts from what proved to be a spring filled with adversity.
I hate injuries
Spring training is supposed to be all about optimism, but it’s hard not to focus on the negative after the Tigers lost two of their most important players.
Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling will start the season on the injured list, and it’s not even clear when they might be back. It’s a huge blow for a team that figured to have a strong outfield trio of Meadows, Vierling, and Riley Greene.
Now the Tigers are forced to replace a Gold Glove-caliber defensive player in center field, as well as the versatile linchpin that allowed A.J. Hinch to tinker with his lineups.
The latter, of course, is Vierling. His presence gave the Tigers a fallback plan at third base and also gave them immense flexibility in the outfield.
Now, the backup option in center field is also out. Wenceel Perez will miss at least the first month of the season with a back injury, which further digs into the Tigers’ depth.
It’s a bummer that injuries have already put a damper on the start of the season, especially since the Tigers are coming off a magical run to the postseason.
Greene, Carpenter outfield shifts
I’m going on the record right now: I’m nervous about how the Tigers were forced to rearrange the outfield in response to the Meadows and Vierling injuries.
Kerry Carpenter playing right field should make every Tigers fan nervous. There’s a chance Carpenter can become an average outfielder defensively, but even if that happens, is that worth the risk of injury?
When Carpenter got hurt last season, the Tigers’ offense went into a months-long slump. He was the only reliable source of power on the roster, and without him, the Tigers struggled to generate any offense.
His bat is too valuable to risk, even in a roster crunch.
There are similar concerns with moving Greene to center field, even if it’s on a part-time basis. Greene was excellent in left, and he became an All-Star because he was healthy enough to play nearly a full season’s worth of games.
The Tigers don’t have quality hitters to spare on this roster. Greene should play left, and Carpenter should be the designated hitter. Keep them safe at all costs.
It seemed like Manuel Margot would play center field against lefties and Perez against righties. But Scott Harris said Margot could be more of a corner option, and now Perez is out.
The fact that the Tigers moved Greene to center field for a handful of spring training games makes me nervous that they might turn to that again. I know there aren’t any good options at this point, but that one makes me the most nervous.
3 platoons
You know how Hinch liked to utilize every single player on his roster last season? That’s not going away this year.
The Tigers appear to have three left-right platoons already built into their everyday lineup.
We know Jake Rogers is the catcher, Colt Keith is at first, Gleyber Torres is at second, Greene is in left (or center), Carpenter is in right, and either Spencer Torkelson or Justyn-Henry Malloy will be at DH (more on that in a moment).
That leaves third base, shortstop, and center field.
At least to start the year, it looks like Trey Sweeney will play shortstop and Zach McKinstry will play third. Maybe it’s Greene in center against right-handed starting pitchers, with Malloy in left and Torkelson at DH?
Meanwhile, Javier Baez (shortstop), Andy Ibanez (third base), and Margot (center field) could start at those positions against lefties.
Fans might not like it, and I’ll admit it’s not the most entertaining brand of baseball. But this is how the Tigers can get the most out of what they’ve got. Hinch will put his players in the positions where they’re most likely to succeed.
Torkelson vs. Malloy
Perhaps the only positive about the Perez injury is the change that both Torkelson and Malloy could make the Opening Day roster. I really hated the thought of one of them getting cut, because they both earned spots this spring.
Torkelson hit .326 with a .380 on-base percentage in 51 plate appearances, including four homers, a double, four walks, and 11 strikeouts.
Malloy, meanwhile, hit .333 with a .418 OBP in 55 plate appearances, including three doubles, five walks, and 11 strikeouts.
The Tigers are desperate for right-handed bats, so they should both make the team, right?
Roster flexibility is definitely a problem with these two. Torkelson’s only defensive position is taken by Keith, and while Malloy can technically play outfield, he’s terrible defensively.
So it looks like one of them will be the primary DH, while the other has to either find somewhere to play in the field, sit the bench, or head to Toledo.
It won’t be a popular opinion, but if only one can make it, I’d go with Malloy. He was so good in the playoffs last year, and the way he dominated in the minors (with elite plate discipline and exit velocities) showed up consistently all spring.
Hat tip to Casey Mize
The most obvious winner of Tigers spring training is Casey Mize, who entered a crowded battle for the last rotation spot and ended up making the decision easy.
Mize allowed just two runs in 16 innings this spring while striking out 18 batters and surrendering seven walks and eight hits. That’s good for a 1.13 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.
The Tigers are too smart to care about spring stats. The real reason Mize made the team is because his stuff backs up the performance.
Mize is throwing harder. He’s supplementing his best secondary pitch, the splitter, with a fastball location that better compliments it. He’s also been vocal about the changes to his slider, which have made for a more diverse and effective weapon.
At the start of the spring, I thought Kenta Maeda was most likely to be the No. 5 starter, but that changed over the past few weeks. This new Mize can actually miss bats, and that’s a game-changer.
Incredible starting rotation
Mize joins what should be one of the top starting rotations in the league.
Obviously, it all starts with Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher on the planet. But the Tigers also have an ace behind him in Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson has ace potential with his ability to miss bats and keep the ball on the ground.
Beyond that trio, the Tigers have the new-and-improved Mize and Jackson Jobe, the top pitching prospect in baseball. It’s a talented and exciting group that should keep the Tigers in most games.
Worst fielding team in league?
On the other hand, could the Tigers be the worst defensive team in the league? I have concerns.
Keith struggled at second base last year and is now learning a new position with an entirely different set of responsibilities.
Malloy and Carpenter are both designated hitters, but one or both will likely see time in the corner outfield, where they’ve struggled.
If Greene is forced to move to center field, he’s leaving the spot where he thrived defensively and also giving it to someone worse. So that hurts the Tigers at two outfield positions.
Then you add that Torres is not viewed as a strong defender, and Baez is always a candidate to lead the league in errors. McKinstry and Ibanez are maybe average at third base. It just feels like a recipe for a bad overall defense.
Rogers is excellent behind the plate, Greene is elite in left, and Sweeney is very good when he plays. But beyond that, the Tigers have a lot of question marks in the field.
Can Riley Greene cut down strikeouts?
Greene has all the makings of a legitimate superstar. He makes excellent contact. He gets on base. He’s fast. And he’s a great outfielder.
That was enough to make him a 5.4 WAR player last season, and if that’s all he is every season for the rest of his prime, the Tigers would be thrilled.
But if Greene could cut down on the strikeouts, there’s even more untapped potential.
Greene struck out in 26.7% of his plate appearances last season and whiffed on 26.8% of his swings. Both of those percentages are worse than league average. This spring, he struck out 17 times in 49 plate appearances (34.7%).
Imagine if Greene could just cut that rate to around 22-23%. He’d probably post an OBP near .370 and maximize his elite tools even further.
Greene’s MLB strikeout rate is mostly in line with what he did in 900 minor-league plate appearances, so I’m not expecting him to drastically improve. But he’s also only 24 years old, so if he could improve incrementally each year, it would add up.
Bottom half of lineup
I was putting together a Tigers lineup projection before Detroit Sports+ today, and that’s when it hit me just how much the Meadows and Vierling injuries hurt the depth of that group.
Once you get beyond Torres, Greene, Carpenter, Keith, and whoever ends up at DH, the names aren’t going to inspire much fear in opposing pitchers.
Most nights, the Tigers’ bottom four hitters will likely feature some combination of McKinstry, Ibanez, Baez, Sweeney, Margot, Kreidler, and Rogers.
Some of those players have shown flashes of offensive potential, but overall, Tigers fans shouldn’t expect many rallies to start at the bottom of the order. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on the pitching staff to keep opponents off the board.
Dillon Dingler hot take
This crossed my mind a few days ago while watching the Tigers: At some point this season, Tigers fans are going to call for Dillon Dingler to be the starting catcher.
As good as Rogers is behind the plate, most fans will judge him primarily on his performance in the batter’s box. And Rogers probably isn’t going to be overly productive at the dish.
And there’s a good chance Dingler will have better offensive numbers, if this spring is any indication.
Dingler hit .263 with two homers, three doubles, and an .800 OPS in 40 plate appearances. He hit the ball hard with regularity and only struck out six times.
This comes after he broke through with a .308/.379/.550 slash line and 17 homers in Triple-A last season. It’s clear the offensive skills that made Dingler a second-round pick in 2020 have started to emerge.
Rogers has tremendous value to the Tigers because of his defense and his masterful handling of the pitching staff. But if the Tigers have an extended offensive drought and Dingler is hitting, we’ll start to see the grumbling on social media.
Andrew Navigato, we see you
He was never going to make the Opening Day roster, but let’s take a moment to acknowledge what Andrew Navigato did this spring.
It wasn’t always against MLB-caliber pitching, but Navigato hit .414 in 29 at-bats with a homer, three doubles, six walks, and five strikeouts.
This comes off back-to-back productive minor-league seasons. Two years ago, Navigato slashed .280/.333/.505 with 26 doubles and 11 homers in Single-A and Double-A. Last year, he slashed .271/.363/.500 with 29 doubles and 21 homers in 128 games at Triple-A.
Navigato was a 20th-round pick. He isn’t listed among Detroit’s top 30 prospects on MLB Pipeline or Baseball America.
So don’t put much stock in 30 spring at-bats. But Navigato has been productive for a couple of years now, so I’m just keeping that in mind.
Kenta Maeda in bullpen
The Tigers probably should have cut ties with Maeda last season. He was a disaster in the rotation and didn’t really have any high-leverage success in the bullpen.
But he’s still here, and after his spring performance, fans should at least be intrigued.
Maeda’s ERA is a bit inflated from this spring because he allowed four home runs in 13.2 innings. But he also held batters to one walk alongside 21 strikeouts.
He’s missing bats with his splitter at a high rate again, and the velocity is up on his fastball. If he’s getting whiffs and throwing strikes, Maeda could actually end up being a legitimate weapon.
Brenan Hanifee vs. Brant Hurter vs. Andrew Chafin
The final bullpen spot is a quandary for the Tigers, because the pitcher who clearly performed the best this spring is also the one who fits their need the worst.
Brenan Hanifee was virtually unhittable in 10.2 spring innings, allowing zero runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out nine batters.
But Hanifee is a right-handed pitcher, and the Tigers already have six of those locked into their MLB bullpen: Will Vest, Beau Brieske, Tommy Kahnle, John Brebbia, Jason Foley, and Maeda.
So the final spot is probably going to come down to a pair of lefties: Brant Hurter and Andrew Chafin.
Chafin joined the Tigers midway through the spring and showed some of the warts that forced him to sign a minor-league deal in the first place. He allowed seven hits, eight earned runs, and six walks in six innings.
He also struck out nine batters, and Chafin has proven himself to the Tigers in two separate stints the past few years. So he’s definitely got a shot to make the roster regardless of those spring numbers.
Part of the problem is Hurter wasn’t dominant, either. He allowed 15 hits, seven earned runs, and four walks in 12 innings, striking out only nine batters. Hurter isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but he allowed far too much hard contact this spring.
My guess is the Tigers will go with Chafin because of his veteran status, but they will have to make room for him on the 40-man roster to do so.
Record prediction
This is a difficult team to project, because the pitching is so strong and the offense is so... not.
All offseason, all anyone wants to talk about is how the Tigers aren’t as good as their 31-13 finish. Well, duh. The Dodgers aren’t even as good as the Tigers’ 31-13 finish. That’s a 114-win pace. Literally nobody is arguing that they’re that good.
But I think the Tigers were better than a 55-63 team through 118 games a year ago. Ill-timed injuries to Greene and Carpenter destroyed the offense for the better part of two months, and the pitching staff also got decimated by injuries.
They’re already off to a bad start with Meadows, Vierling, and Perez on the shelf, but odds are the Tigers won’t be as unlucky this season. As long as the pitching staff keeps them in most games, I have confidence that Hinch will put his players in the best positions to succeed and keep the Tigers in the hunt.
I predict that the Tigers will go 85-77 this season, and I don’t think that will be quite good enough to make the playoffs.
With a fully healthy lineup, the Tigers’ offense might be league average -- which is definitely good enough to make the playoffs behind this pitching staff.
But now, it looks like the Tigers will be playing the first month of the season with a truly terrible bottom half of the lineup. Toss in what might be an abysmal defense and that puts a lot of pressure on the pitching staff.
It’s bad timing that these injuries coincide with a virtual death row schedule over the first month of the season. Here’s everyone the Tigers play through the end of April:
- 3 games at Dodgers -- defending World Series champs and favorites to repeat.
- 3 at Mariners -- winning team each of past four years and playoff contender.
- 3 vs. White Sox -- probably the worst team in the league.
- 3 vs. Yankees -- defending American League champions.
- 3 at Twins -- Unanimous AL Central betting favorites.
- 3 at Brewers -- 93 and 92 wins the last two seasons and a playoff contender.
- 4 vs. Royals -- playoff team last season and a contender again this season.
- 3 vs. Padres -- playoff team last season and a contender again this season.
- 3 vs. Orioles -- playoff team last two seasons and a contender again this season.
- 3 at Astros -- four-time defending AL West champs and favorite to make it five.
There’s a chance every single game the Tigers play in March and April, except for those three vs. the White Sox, is against a playoff team. Since those games will also come without Meadows and Vierling, I think it’s going to be a rough month.
If they can weather the storm, the Tigers will be in a good spot. But that’s a lot to ask of a lineup that’s only four or five deep.
I’ve still got the Tigers finishing with a winning record because of Hinch and the pitching. So it should be a fun summer.
Here’s to hoping there’s still a bit of last fall’s magic left over.
