4Warn Weather – Meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are forecasting a below-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin, which runs from June 1st through November 30th, 2026.
NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are forecasting the following number of storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:
- 8 to 14 named storms (winds of 39 MPH or higher)
- 3-6 hurricanes (winds of 74 MPH or higher)
- 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3-4 with winds of 111 MPH or higher)
Meteorologists at NOAA are also saying they have a 70% confidence in these ranges in their initial forecast. On average, we would see 14 named storms with winds of 39 MPH or higher, 7 of those becoming hurricanes with winds of 74 MPH or higher, and 3 of those becoming major hurricanes (category 3 or higher; winds of 111 MPH or higher).
With this current forecast, NOAA is forecasting a 55% chance that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be a below average season, a 35% chance that this hurricane season will be a “near average” season, and a 10% chance that this hurricane season will be an “above average” season.
So, why the below-average forecast?
The Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be below-average due to a number of factors, including the development of an El Niño pattern.
El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal, with trade winds expected to be a little weaker than average, El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes. Typically, when we have warmer ocean temperatures and low wind shear, this would support a more active hurricane season.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
What is El Niño?
During El Niño, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas.
El Niño means Little Boy in Spanish. South American fishermen first noticed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s. The full name they used was El Niño de Navidad, because El Niño typically peaks around December.
El Niño can significantly affect our weather. The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are drier and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual, with increased flooding.
El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient-rich. During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold.
Related --> El Niño forecast to develop: What this means for Southeast Michigan this summer