A busy early afternoon with multiple tornado warnings issued for Detroit, Flint, Midland and Saginaw areas. An unconfirmed report of up to 40 homes and overturned trailers in Freeland. Although Southeast Lower Michigan was only under a general thunder risk from the Storm Prediction Center, multiple storms had radar-indicated signs of rotation. Here’s what is ahead for the rest of the week.
Southeast Michigan has a classic early-summer setup this week: warm air, lots of humidity, and several weather systems nearby to give that air a push upward. All the ingredients needed to fire up storms. We also have a heat advisory that will go into effect from 12 p.m. to 8 p.m. across most of the area.
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From now until 8 p.m. today, a weak front is moving across the area while very moist air is being pulled in. When clouds break and the June sun heats the ground, the air near the surface becomes more unstable. That rising air can build thunderstorms. Because the atmosphere holds a lot of water, these storms may drop heavy rain quickly. A few storms could also produce strong wind gusts as rain-cooled air rushes down to the ground.
Wednesday and Thursday bring the heat. Highs should climb into the low 90s, and with dew points in the upper 60s to mid-70s, it may feel close to 100 degrees at times. That heat and humidity matter because they are storm fuel. On Wednesday, the main storm chance looks later in the day or evening as a small disturbance and low-level jet try to break through a “cap,” or warm layer that can hold storms back. The Storm Prediction Center has southeast Michigan in a Marginal Risk, meaning a few stronger storms could produce gusty winds or hail.
Thursday is the bigger day to watch. A stronger wave and cold front will move toward the Great Lakes late Thursday into Thursday night. This front will force hot, humid air upward, while stronger winds above the ground help storms organize. That is why a Slight Risk is in place for all of southeast Michigan. Storms may form into a line or cluster, with damaging wind the main concern.
By Friday, the front should push the hottest, stickiest air east of us. Expect lower humidity, a cooler feel, and a break from the most active storm pattern.