The 4Warn Weather Team is closely monitoring the potential for severe thunderstorms today as an active weather pattern moves across Southeast Michigan. While the forecast continues to evolve, confidence is increasing that portions of the area could see strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. One of the biggest forecast challenges is the potential for clusters of showers and thunderstorms during the first half of the day. Those storms could influence the timing and intensity of additional storms later this afternoon and tonight, creating some uncertainty in the overall severe weather threat.
Even with that uncertainty, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Southeast Michigan under an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather. Some high resolution data has placed the most convective energy between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m. However, this really is a fluid situation depending on how the day plays out. Another model waits to pull storms across the area closer to 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. with another robust round overnight. The primary concern will be damaging straight-line winds up to 70 mph, capable of downing trees, producing scattered power outages, and causing property damage. However, all modes of severe weather remain possible, including large hail, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and even a few tornadoes. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and to stay weather-aware throughout the day, especially if they have outdoor plans. Be prepared to move indoors quickly if a Severe Thunderstorm Warning or Tornado Warning is issued for your area.
Afternoon temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s before thunderstorms develop. Behind the cold front, conditions improve on Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures, gusty winds and highs around 80 degrees. Dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures will then dominate the middle of the week before the next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Saturday.