4Warn Weather – Nearly all of Michigan is at risk for storms on Wednesday, including a chance for severe storms that can spawn tornadoes.
The Severe Weather Prediction Center has placed areas south of the top of the Thumb in a slight risk for severe storms, and areas south of Lansing in an enhanced risk for storms, including a portion of Southeast Michigan and Metro Detroit.
Northern Lower Michigan is in the marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, the lowest on the severe risk scale.
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Severe weather forecast for Metro Detroit
From the 4Warn Weather team:
- It’s looking like we’ll get mainly 2 rounds of storms Wednesday.
- The first comes right around lunch time. Severe weather is possible here.
- The second rounds comes after sunset, and should exit by midnight. This second round has a better chance of being severe.
- In terms of threats, strong damaging winds is our biggest concern. Flooding is also a concern as some spots could see near 2″. Most of us are around 1″ of rain. The hail and tornado threats are lower, but can’t be ruled out.
- We are split between an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) and a slight risk (Level 2 of 5).
- We have declared a 4Warn Weather Alert for Wednesday because of the threat for severe weather.
West Michigan severe weather forecast
From NWS in Grand Rapids: Wintry weather of snow and freezing rain mainly north of M-46 tonight into Wednesday morning transitions to rain and thunderstorms across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Snow accumulations and ice will cause hazardous travel conditions north of M-46 Wednesday morning. Severe storms are possible during the afternoon and evening with the risk for 70+ mph winds, tornadoes, and hail.
Biggest severe weather threats for Michigan storms
Severe weather risk levels explained
Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High risks represent progressively larger threats for organized severe storm episodes.
Thunderstorms (light green) - General or non-severe thunderstorms - Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
1-Marginal (dark green) - Marginal risk - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
2-Slight (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
3-Enhanced (orange) - Enhanced risk - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
4-Moderate (red) - Moderate risk - An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
5-High (magenta) - High risk - An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
ALSO SEE: Watches, warnings, risks: Understanding Michigan’s severe weather alert terms
